Content:
Electric vehicles are not emission-free.
However, the electric vehicle at the dealership is displayed as emission-free. But this is not true, because CO₂ (and other emissions) are generated during the production of the car and the electricity it consumes.
What is true then? It’s complicated.
CO₂-free driving is not possible in normal operation today.
Let’s focus on CO₂ and neglect all other emissions: This alone is very complicated. Vehicle type, place of manufacture, type of production and driving behavior are just some of the factors that determine the CO₂ footprint. What’s more, public opinion finds it very difficult to process rational complexity. The emotional discussions on social media are proof of this. The falling sales figures for electric vehicles are another reason.
It is true that electric vehicles can lead to lower emissions in the long term.
The scientific facts are provided by the Association of German Engineers (VD) in an elaborate study: “When will driving go green”?
Conclusion of the study: Only green electricity makes driving green. No green electricity means no green driving. Because our electricity mix is not green today.
Germany is decades away from green electricity.
The official value of CO₂ emissions per kilowatt hour of electricity generated was 380 g/kWh in 2023 (source: Statista).
This is the average value from the various types of generation: nuclear, wind, hydro and solar power plants are included at 0g CO₂/kWh. For a coal-fired power plant, it is over 1,000g CO₂/kWh.
The reduction in CO₂ emissions must be seen in the context of the amount of electricity generated. The Federal Environment Agency writes:
Electricity consumption rose from 479 TWh in 1990 to 582 TWh in 2017. Since 2018, a reduction in electricity consumption to 572 TWh has been recorded for the first time. A low of 511 TWh was reached in 2020. In 2021, electricity consumption increased to 523 TWh as a result of the economic recovery after the first year of the pandemic. Only to fall again to 513 TWh in 2022.
This means that the curve above is determined not only by the type of generation (coal, solar, wind), but also by production and consumption:
- The power plant fleet in Germany has been modernized since 1990, with more efficient plants. This conversion is a very lengthy process.
- In addition, solar and wind have been massively expanded and already take over a large part of electricity production in appropriate weather conditions. During “dark doldrums” or when current demand exceeds current wind and solar production, this demand must be covered by coal or gas-fired power plants.
- On April 15, 2023, the last three nuclear power units with a capacity of around 3 GW were shut down. This marks the end of CO₂-free, low-cost electricity generation from nuclear power in Germany for the time being. Neighboring countries Poland, the Czech Republic and France are currently working on new builds, and Switzerland is also continuing to rely on nuclear energy.
- Less energy has been consumed in Germany for the first time since 2018. Since the Russian attack on Ukraine and the loss of cheap pipeline gas, electricity consumption in Germany has fallen (see chart).
This means that we have been able to halve CO2 emissions per kilowatt hour of electricity consumed in Germany over the last 35 years through modernization, the expansion of renewable energy and the shutdown of large consumers.
At the same time, higher productivity and the resulting growth will lead to more energy being consumed: Major productivity gains are expected from the widespread use of artificial intelligence. In the USA, it is estimated that AI (artificial intelligence) will require around 20% of the new generation capacity installed to date. The demand in Germany should be of a similar order of magnitude.
The transition to 100% emission-free electricity will take several decades. Decisive technical breakthroughs in the generation, distribution and storage of electricity are still required to achieve affordable “green electricity” around the clock.
Previous energy supply concepts are not enough.
Despite the successful expansion of renewable energies, German energy and industrial policy is met with astonishment and incomprehension abroad, but also by large sections of the population.
- The Swedish government is against an electricity alliance with Germany because “the German energy markets are inefficient”.
- The “Green Governor” Arnold Schwarzenegger, a pioneer in environmental protection, complains about policy in Germany, the long approval procedures for new wind power plants, the shutdown of nuclear power plants and the construction of new reserve gas-fired power plants.
There are more examples. The German path is a special path for an industrialized nation.
Energy production worldwide will still be overwhelmingly fossil in 2023. The strong growth in renewable energies will largely be consumed by the growing energy demand of an economically and technologically developing world.
The graphic from OurworldinData.com shows:
- The global demand for energy is growing exponentially as the world’s population becomes increasingly wealthy and productive. Cheap energy promotes economic growth in all regions of the world. And so the demand for energy will continue to grow exponentially.
- This global energy demand will be met from the cheapest available energy sources, regardless of the type of generation. You could also say that every ton of coal produced that is saved and not consumed in Germany is bought and consumed by other countries.
- Despite the massive expansion of solar and wind power plants, renewable energies play a very minor role in the global energy mix. This will hardly change in the coming years and decades unless the rate of expansion can be changed exponentially.
- Nuclear has only played a marginal role in the global energy mix to date. The construction of new plants is growing worldwide. New, safe technologies such as Small Modular Reactors (SMR), fourth-generation reactors and pebble bed reactors, which are already in the industrialization phase, offer great hope. However, even in the most optimistic scenarios, it will take several decades before the share of nuclear power in the global energy mix exceeds 30% or 50%.
It should be noted that a large proportion of primary energy is not converted into electricity. For example, when fossil fuels are burned directly in production processes, such as in the chemical or steel industry.
However, primary energy consumption determines greenhouse gas emissions: the more fossil fuels are consumed, the higher the emissions.
The switch to CO₂-free energy generation is not the task of one generation, but the task of the century. Even at the current rate of expansion of solar and wind power.
The nationwide supply of green electricity by the end of this century remains a bold but achievable vision. However, achieving this in just a few years is hopeless.
The study proves that we can make transportation emission-free in the long term.
But what are the exact emissions of an electric vehicle today?
The VDI (Association of German Engineers), together with 25 researchers, has extensively investigated the facts in a comparative study between petrol, diesel, hybrids and BEVs. The assumptions of the study are very plausible: a compact vehicle (Golf class) is driven 200,000 km. The CO₂ emissions for the production, operation and disposal of the vehicle are determined. A mean value approach is used for electricity generation (corresponds to the graph for gCO₂/kWh), and at the same time compared with a marginal approach (use of CO₂-free solar power).
These are the results:
- Electric vehicles are already more energy-efficient than combustion engines. This lead will only increase with new battery technologies.
- The energy mix is crucial for CO₂ emissions. I.e. the energy supply must be converted from fossil to non-fossil.
For all those who don’t have time to take a close look at the study, I have linked two podcasts that have looked at the study from different perspectives:
- Alex Bloch, Chief Correspondent and Chief Explanation Officer of AutoMotor Sport, explains in an elaborate video why the 0g CO₂ in the sales brochures is wrong and why the WLTP ranges of electric vehicles are unreliable. He explains why the production of batteries is much more energy-intensive than the production of a combustion engine. Due to the high proportion of coal-fired electricity in China, an enormous amount of CO₂ is already “baked into” the batteries. His conclusion: we are a long way from CO₂-free driving.
- A different perspective is taken by battery professor Fichtner in the “Geladen” podcast (the best on the subject) from the Karlsruhe Institute for Technology (KIT). He criticizes the fact that most combustion vehicles are SUVs and that the study examines compact vehicles. Here it is stated that the CO₂ savings with EVs are 40-60% compared to a combustion engine. The participants also emphasize the importance of local, CO₂-neutral production of battery cells in Europe, as planned by North Volt, for example.
Ultimately, both camps, the customer and industry-oriented Chief Explanation Officer and the KIT researchers, are struggling to explain why and how we can have electric vehicle fleets across the board to avoid harmful greenhouse gases.
It takes a lot of time to build them up. The technological leaps in EVs over the last 15 years have been breathtaking and have delighted many customers. But what is becoming clear in the current discussion: Whether it’s the localization of battery technology in Europe. Or the further development of solid-state batteries. Or the penetration of the vehicle fleet with modern electric drives. Or the switch to CO₂-free power generation – everything has to come together for the vision to become reality.
And that will take decades.
There is no shortcut.
Despite the dealer declaring a new electric vehicle with 0g CO₂ emissions because EU law requires the manufacturer to do so, EVs generate 75% of the CO₂ of a diesel vehicle.
In other words, even if the politically declared goal is to build up large fleets of electric vehicles and this can be plausibly explained to voters and consumers, it is not enough to specify the measurement method.
Because every driver understands, consciously and unconsciously, the complexity of the undertaking. At the latest when they sit in an electric vehicle and gain their own experience.
And this is reflected in the currently weak sales figures: The DAT Barometer writes: “The half-year balance of new BEV registrations shows a double-digit minus in any case, and the used electric car market also remains manageable. With around 70,000 units each in the first six months, privately purchased BEVs, both new and used, are barely noticeable.”
Buyers understand that the general conditions are not favorable for BEVs: Only 12.5% of new vehicles are purely electric. Of these, 39% are purchased by private buyers. It is not enough to make the measurement method for exhaust gases ever stricter. Renault CEO Luca de Meo also recently stated this on LinkedIn.
The EU must create supportive framework conditions for the various criteria that come into play when buying a BEV (purchase price, personal contribution to environmental protection, range, charging infrastructure, residual values, bidirectional charging, electricity mix, etc.).
Or it must leave the creation of this framework to the market, customers and the industry. Because electric vehicles will prevail, as they are the better technology in the long term.
The short-term tweaking of exhaust emission values is under-complex and not the answer to the challenges of global climate protection, economic growth and the costs of individual mobility.
The non-registration of vehicles with combustion engines from 2035 alone will not have the desired effect on emissions from private transport.
Instead, the EU needs a framework for the coming decades that addresses the complexity of the field in order to realize the goal of emission-free transport.
Many thanks to the VDI and KIT researchers for this study, which has made one thing crystal clear and unmistakable for everyone:
The car industry will not be able to change the global climate on its own.
