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The Volkswagen Diesel scandal altered my career.
In 2015, Volkswagen cheated on pollution testing, according to American environmental officials. A lawsuit was concluded with a guilty plea, 34,9 billion USD in compensation, and the acceptance of a “Monitor” to the Board of Management. Former Deputy Attorney General of the United States Larry D. Thompson testified in 2020, five years later, that Volkswagen “had adjusted to a compliant firm.”
My boss had to fill a job that had become empty in headquarters as soon as the fraud was discovered. I had a new boss and my career changed. After my temporary assignment was completed, I was forced to return to headquarters, too.
The Diesel scandal has accelerated the shift towards electric.
However, in the aftermath of the scandal, Volkswagen made a remarkable shift towards electric vehicles (EVs). It was only four years later that the highly anticipated ID-family made its debut.
Initially, I was skeptical regarding this sudden change.
After all, Volkswagen had long been renowned for their diesel cars, which were known for their quality, impressive range, and durability. In contrast, EVs presented certain drawbacks such as limited range, longer refueling time, higher costs, and an insufficient charging infrastructure.
Nevertheless, the commitment of the Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM), substantial investments in new EV platforms and battery technology, intensified competition, and governmental financial support created a conducive environment for the development of appealing EVs.
The results have been impressive.
In 2022, Volkswagen sold an impressive 325,100 fully electric cars. Additionally, Audi achieved sales of 118,200 EVs, Skoda reached 53,700, Porsche recorded 34,800, and SEAT/Cupra sold 31,400. In total, the Volkswagen Group sold a remarkable 572,100 EVs, marking a significant year-on-year growth of 26.3%. Importantly, all these EVs are technically part of the same family, sharing common technology and characteristics.
My initial skepticism was clearly misplaced.
The Volkswagen Group has firmly established itself as a major player in the EV market, demonstrating their capability to compete and succeed in this rapidly evolving industry.
This change was clearly for the better.
But my skepticism was caused by a reluctance to change. When my career changed after the Diesel crisis and the EV strategy proved to be right, I had to change course. I dug deep into understanding the facts about individual mobility.
I started with the environment around me.
For some, electric vehicles (EVs) aren’t suitable just yet.
Take, for example, our families’ farm located in the mountainous regions of Germany.
Each task there requires a sturdy vehicle, and a single tank of fuel does not even last a week. Charging an EV there is a challenging endeavor, to say the least. As a family, we need a versatile and functional car that can serve dual purposes. One day, it must transport our family to a restaurant, while the next day, it should be capable of hauling heavy building materials and equipment. It’s essential that the car is equipped with a tow hitch to pull trailers loaded with an excavator or lumber, regardless of the season. Considering the rigorous demands placed upon it, the vehicle must also remain affordable, staying well below the €30,000 price point as a used car.
Nevertheless, most people are not living in rural areas.
In Western countries, approximately 80% of the population resides in urban areas, while China has around 60% and India has approximately 34%. The charging infrastructure in these urban settings is dense, at least when compared to the sparse countryside. This signifies the growing accessibility and convenience of charging points for EV owners.
The surge of EV adoption is inevitable.
The surge of electric vehicle (EV) adoption is indeed inevitable, driven by several factors such as advancements in charging infrastructure, the development of versatile EV models, and unique product features that set EVs apart from combustion engine cars.
EVs offer certain advantages in terms of product features that cannot be matched by cars with a combustion engine.
- Long–term lower cost: Firstly, the drivetrain of EVs is simpler, resulting in lower costs. EVs do not require gearboxes, and their motors are simpler compared to the complex internal combustion engines. The cost of EVs is primarily driven by battery expenses, which are expected to decrease further due to industrialization, competition, and market saturation. Forecasts indicate a significant decline in battery costs, making EVs around 30-40% cheaper in terms of today’s purchasing power. This cost reduction, combined with the lower maintenance requirements of EVs, contributes to long-term affordability.
- Durability, less wear and tear: Another advantage of EVs is their durability and reduced wear and tear. EVs do not require spare parts for engines and gearboxes, resulting in lower maintenance costs. The absence of oil changes and the use of regenerative braking further minimize maintenance needs. Notably, even early EVs have demonstrated impressive durability with some vehicles exceeding 1,000,000 km while retaining 84% of their battery capacity. This longevity prolongs the replacement cycles for cars, reducing production volumes and minimizing environmental impact.
- Less vibration and noise: EVs also provide a superior driving experience with less vibration and noise compared to combustion engine cars. The absence of traditional engine noise contributes to a quieter and more comfortable ride, enhancing the overall driving experience. In a conversation I had back in 2019 with my friend Tom, an esteemed engine developer renowned for his expertise in large, high-performance V6 diesel engines, he expressed a notable sentiment regarding the future of combustion engines. Tom remarked, “Nobody wants a rattle car anymore.”
- Software-driven vehicles: In terms of software, EVs feature more advanced electronic architectures. New EV platforms are purpose-built and capable of delivering a competitive edge in user experience. The ability to deploy new functionalities, such as automation and driver support, is easier in EVs as they offer continuous advancements in software capabilities.
- Torque (plus recuperation): EVs offer significantly more torque, providing impressive acceleration. Compared to combustion engine vehicles, EVs deliver instantaneous torque, resulting in quick and powerful acceleration. I tested this with a Model Y in downtown Berlin. As I zoomed along, a Yamaha MT09 pulled up next to me, boasting its impressive specs: a 847cc inline three-cylinder engine delivering around 115-120 horsepower and a torque of 87-92 Nm. Curiosity got the better of me: I gave a nod to the biker, signaling my readiness. With a swift push of the pedal, my EV sprang into action. The instantaneous torque delivery propelled me forward, leaving the Yamaha MT09 behind. From their instant torque and impressive acceleration, EVs prove that they can rival and even surpass the performance of powerful motorcycles.
- More energy-efficient: Additionally, EVs are more energy efficient. The energy put into the battery is converted into propulsion at a rate of 70% or higher, whereas modern diesel engines convert only about 45% of energy into propulsion. The higher energy efficiency of EVs leads to reduced resource consumption and environmental damage on a global scale.
Environmental friendliness should not be the only reason for EVs.
In this list, we are missing the key reason why governments subsidize the purchase of EVs as a preferable new car choice: less carbon emissions.
This is because a fleet of EV will eventually become more eco-friendly, but only in the long term.
Long-term, we will transition to carbon-neutral energy generation. This is an unmet goal: in many countries, depending on the generating mix, today’s EVs have a higher overall CO2 footprint than diesel automobiles. In addition, an EV emits 100 percent more CO2 throughout the manufacturing process than an ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) vehicle.
The goal is to charge EVs entirely with renewable energy.
When compared to diesel automobiles, an EV fleet powered with renewable energy emits 50-70 percent less CO2. It is critical to recognize while making a purchase choice that EVs emit CO2 during their lifespan. There is no such thing as a car that does not emit any CO2.
Only complete abstention from mobility reduces CO2 emissions to zero.
However, electric vehicles combined with renewable energy will surely help to significantly cut CO2 emissions.
EV is the superior technology, but here is what must be changed.
Electric vehicles may not, however, be appropriate for all purposes. Nonetheless, efforts are being made to overcome these issues and push the required improvements for greater EV adoption.
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- Charging infrastructure remains a key focus area. The establishment of fast-charging networks, standardized charging protocols, and the deployment of charging points in convenient locations where people park their vehicles are critical. While progress is being made, the development and implementation of comprehensive charging infrastructure will take time.
- The cost of EVs is an important consideration. As EV technology evolves, the simplification of vehicle components and improvements in battery manufacturing are contributing to cost reductions. Lowering the upfront cost of EVs, considering the overall cost of ownership and the lifetime of both EVs and their batteries, will enhance their affordability and attractiveness in the market. The resulting price pressure will force some manufacturers to rethink their business models, which we can already see.
- Integrating EVs into local energy systems presents an opportunity for synergies. Homeowners with excess solar power generation can use EVs to store and use surplus energy. Bi-directional charging systems enable EV batteries to power household appliances, such as air conditioning and heat pumps, during off-peak hours. Implementing such solutions requires technical advancements and supportive policies to enable seamless integration.
- Recognizing and addressing the environmental footprint of EVs involves multiple aspects. Enhancements in recycling processes for EV components, promoting shared mobility concepts, advancing autonomous driving technologies, and transitioning to renewable energy sources for electricity generation are crucial steps. Achieving a significant reduction in the environmental impact of EVs will only increase public support for a more rapid adoption of an environmentally friendly technology.
While progress is being made in these areas, future breakthroughs, and broad acceptance of EVs will need a deliberate effort among industry players, governments, and consumers. The practicality and appeal of EVs as a sustainable transportation option may be increased by tackling the difficulties related to charging infrastructure, cost, integration into energy systems, and environmental effect.
Will we see one day 100% electric cars in a few decades?
In big cities, yes. For some Western or Chinese cities, this might even be a reality within a few years.
And we will see fewer cars in metropolitan areas.
Traffic restrictions and rising cost for private car ownership in cities, the use of bikes, shared and micro mobility services, and improved public transport services will reduce the need for cars inside cities. We can observe this trend happening already in cities like Berlin, Shenzen or Paris.
In rural areas, the transition to EV or CO2-neutral cars will take longer.
We might remain with a limited number of dual-use application ICEs in rural areas. If we manage to discover and deploy a source of abundant energy, which might require another two or three decades to get industrialized, we might even convert to CO2 neutral eFuels and H2-driven cars, such as those conceptualized by Toyota.
But the making of cars will still cause the emission of CO2.
Even if the factories run on renewables, oil and gas are used to make plastics, e.g., for the housing of battery cells or the car interior, and for lubricants. Only by reducing the total amount of cars and new materials produced combined with increased recycling, we might cut 80 or 90% of today’s CO2 emissions, which accounts today for 14-15% of the total CO2 emissions globally.
With a 100% emission-free car fleet, fewer cars, 100% renewable energy as fuel and all the other measures listed above, we will reduce humanity’s global CO2 emissions by 13.5%.
Protecting the environment will not be the only reason to switch to EV.
Embracing the EV revolution has more rationality to it than just environmental protection: EVs provide an increase in the car’s lifespan, more torque (aka more fun), more automation, and less cars overall.
This landslide is unstoppable.
Embrace it.
Support it.
