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Electric vehicles are not emission-free.
But the electric vehicle that is at the German dealership is shown as emission-free. But this is not true, because the production of the car and the electricity consumed produces CO2 (and other emissions).
What is true then?
It’s complicated.
Let’s focus on CO2 and neglect all other emissions: that alone is very complicated. Vehicle type, place of manufacture, type of generation, driving behavior are just a few factors that determine the CO2 footprint. In addition, public opinion can find rational complexity very difficult to process. The emotional discussions on social media are proof of this. The declining sales figures for electric vehicles are another.
It is true that electric vehicles can lead to lower emissions in the long term.
The Association of German Engineers (VD) provides the scientific facts in an elaborate study: “When will driving go green”?
Conclusion of the study: Green electricity makes driving green.
No green driving without green electricity.
The graphic shows the emissions during the production, operation and disposal of a compact vehicle for the various drive types.
Because our electricity is not green in the mix today.
Germany is decades away from green electricity.
The official value of CO2 emissions per kilowatt hour of electricity generated in 2023 was 380g/kWh.
This is the average value from the different types of generation: nuclear, wind, hydro and solar power plants enter with 0g CO2/kWh. In a coal-fired power plant, it is over 1,000g CO2/kWh.
The decline in CO2 emissions must be seen in the context of the amount of electricity generated. The Federal Environment Agency writes: “Electricity consumption rose from 479 (TWh) in 1990 to 582 TWh in 2017. Since 2018, electricity consumption has been reduced to 572 TWh for the first time. At 511 TWh for 2020, a low was reached. In 2021, electricity consumption increased to 523 TWh because of the economic recovery after the first year of the pandemic. To fall back to 513 TWh in 2022.”
This means that the curve above is determined not only by the type of generation (coal, solar, wind), but also by production and consumption:
- Since 1990, Germany’s power plant fleet has been updated to include more efficient plants. This conversion is a lengthy procedure.
- Furthermore, solar and wind power have been dramatically expanded and now account for a sizable portion of electricity production under favorable weather circumstances. During the “dark doldrums,” or when current demand exceeds current wind and solar production, coal- or gas-fired power facilities must provide that demand.
- On 15.4.2023, the remaining three nuclear power plant units with a capacity of approximately 3 GW were turned off. This means that Germany’s use of nuclear power to provide CO2-free, affordable electricity has come to an end for the time being. Poland, the Czech Republic, and France are actively working on new buildings, while Switzerland continues to rely on nuclear energy.
- Germany’s energy consumption has decreased for the first time since 2018. Since the Russian invasion on Ukraine and the loss of cheap pipeline gas, Germany’s electricity usage has decreased (see chart)
This indicates that in the last 35 years, Germany has been able to cut emissions per kilowatt hour of electricity consumed in half because to modernization, the spread of renewable energy, and the shutdown of large consumers.
At the same time, more energy will be consumed due to higher productivity and the growth it triggers: Large productivity gains are expected through the widespread use of artificial intelligence. In the United States, the increase in new generation capacity required by AI (artificial intelligence) is estimated to be around 20% of the installed capacity to date. The demand in Germany should also be of a similar magnitude.
The transition to 100% emission-free electricity will take several decades on this path. In order to achieve nationwide low-cost “green electricity” around the clock, decisive technical breakthroughs are still needed in the generation, distribution and storage of electricity.
Previous energy supply concepts are insufficient.
Despite the remarkable spread of renewable energy, German energy and industrial policy has been met with surprise and incomprehension both overseas and among vast segments of the people.
- The Swedish government is against an electricity interconnection with Germany because “the German energy markets are inefficient”.
- The “Green Governor” Arnold Schwarzenegger, a pioneer in environmental protection, complains about the energy policy in Germany, the long approval procedures for new wind power plants, the shutdown of nuclear power plants and the construction of new reserve gas-fired power plants.
There are more examples, for reference look for the energy analyst group @Doomberg on Substack (243k followers). The German way is a special path of an industrial nation.
In 2023, fossil fuels still account for most of the global energy generation. The tremendous growth in renewable energies is mostly eaten by the world’s expanding energy demand as it evolves economically and technologically.
The graphic shows:
- The world’s energy demand is expanding exponentially as the global population gets more prosperous and productive. Cheap energy stimulates economic growth in every corner of the planet. As a result, energy demand will continue to increase at an exponential rate.
- This worldwide energy need will be met by the most cost-effective energy sources available, independent of generation technology. One may also argue that every tonne of coal mined but not consumed in Germany is purchased and consumed by other countries.
- Despite significant expansions of solar and wind power plants, renewable energy accounts for only a small portion of the worldwide energy mix. This will hardly alter in future years and decades unless the rate of expansion can be increased enormously.
- Nuclear has also played only a marginal role in the global energy mix so far. The construction of new plants worldwide is growing. There are great hopes for new, safe technologies such as Small Modular Reactors (SMR), fourth-generation reactors and reactors. pebble bed reactors that are already in the industrialization phase. But even under the most optimistic scenarios, it will take several decades for nuclear power to reach a threshold of 30% or 50% of the world’s energy mix.
Regarding the graph, it should be emphasized that a significant portion of the main energy is not converted into electricity. For example, when fossil fuels are used directly in manufacturing processes like the chemical or steel sectors.
However, primary energy use determines greenhouse gas emissions: the more fossil fuels consumed, the greater the emissions.
The shift to CO2-free energy generation is a century-long endeavor, not a generational one. Even with the current rate of increase of solar and wind power.
The national supply of green electricity by the end of the century remains a lofty but attainable goal. However, attaining this in a few years is unrealistic.
The study demonstrates that we can make transportation emissions-free.
But what exactly are the emissions of today’s electric vehicles?
The VDI (Association of German Engineers) and 25 researchers thoroughly analyzed the facts of the issue in a comparative analysis of gasoline, diesel, hybrids, and BEVs. The study’s assumptions are quite feasible. A compact automobile (Golf class) travels 200,000 kilometers. The CO2 emissions from the vehicle’s manufacture, operation, and disposal are determined. For electricity generation, an average method is utilized (according to the graph on gCO2/kWh), while a marginal approach is compared (using CO2-free solar power).
These are the results:
- Electric vehicles are already more energy-efficient than combustion engines. With new battery technologies, this lead will only increase.
- The energy mix is decisive for CO2 emissions. This means that the energy supply must be converted from fossil to non-fossil.
For all those who don’t have time to take a close look at the study, I have linked two podcasts (in German only) that took a closer look at the study from different perspectives:
- Alex Bloch, Chief Correspondent and Chief Explanation Officer of AutoMotor Sport , explains in an elaborate video why the 0g CO2 in the sales brochures is wrong and why the WLTP ranges of electric vehicles are unreliable.He shows why the creation of batteries requires far more energy than the production of internal combustion engines. Due to China’s high proportion of coal-fired electricity, a massive amount of CO2 has already been “baked” into the batteries. His conclusion: we are a long way from CO2-free driving.
- A different perspective is taken by battery professor Fichtner in the “Geladen” podcast (the best on the subject) of the Karlsruhe Institute for Technology (KIT). He questions the study’s focus on compact cars while the majority of combustion vehicles are SUVs. According to this study, electric vehicles save 40-60% more CO2 than combustion engines. Participants also emphasize the significance of local, CO2-free battery cell production in Europe, as suggested, for example, by North Volt.
Finally, both sides, the Chief Explanation Officer, who is close to customers and business, and the KIT academics, are unable to explain why and how we might establish national electric vehicle fleets in order to minimize harmful greenhouse gas emissions.
This fleet of electric vehicles is an excellent way to accomplish this.
things takes a long time to set things up. Over the last 15 years, EV technology has advanced dramatically, delighting many customers. What is becoming obvious in the current debate is whether it is the localization of battery technology in Europe. Or further evolution into a solid-state battery. Or the use of modern electric propulsion in the vehicle fleet. Or the transition to CO2-free power generation: everything must work together to make the goal a reality.
And it will take decades.
There is no shortcut.
EVs emit 75% more CO2 than diesel vehicles, despite the fact that the dealer reports a new electric vehicle with 0g CO2 emissions since EU law mandates it.
In other words, even if the politically proclaimed goal is to produce massive fleets of electric vehicles that can be rationally justified to voters and consumers, simply outlining the assessment method, is insufficient.
Because every motorist consciously and unconsciously understands the complexity of the undertaking. At the latest when he gets into an electric vehicle and gains his own experience.
And this is reflected in the current weak sales figures: The DAT barometer writes: “In any case, the half-year balance of new BEV registrations shows a double-digit minus, and the used electric car market also remains manageable. The privately purchased BEVs are hardly noticeable, both new and used, with around 70,000 units each in the first six months.”
Buyers recognize that the framework conditions are unfavorable for BEVs: only 12.5% of new vehicles are fully electric. Private buyers account for 39% of these transactions.
Making exhaust gas measurement methods more stringent is insufficient.
The EU must establish favorable framework conditions for the various factors to consider when purchasing a BEV (purchase price, personal contribution to environmental protection, range, charging infrastructure, residual values, bidirectional charging, and power mix).
Alternatively, it must delegate the development of this framework to the market, customers, and industry. Electric vehicles will prevail because they are the superior technology in the long run.
Short-term modifications to exhaust gas limits are simple and do not address the difficulties of global climate protection, economic growth, or the expenses of personal mobility.
A prohibition on combustion engines from 2035 will not significantly reduce emissions from private transportation.
Instead, the EU requires a framework for the future decades that addresses the field’s complexity in order to accomplish the aim of emission-free transportation.
Thank you to the experts at the VDI and KIT for this study, which made one thing crystal plain and unambiguously clear to everyone:
The automotive industry will be unable to change the global climate on its own.
