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Although I’m a quick learner, I’m still seen as a rather conservative “early majority”.
Especially when it comes to cars.
In terms of the real things that are important, that are relevant to my family, my environment, my surroundings and my career, I’m definitely behind the early adopters.
Early vs. late adopters refer to how quickly we introduce a new technology. The focus is on the “early majority”. As they represent a large market sector, growth and profitability, the early majority represents the breakthrough of new technologies.
Applied to the introduction of electric vehicles, anyone who owns one of the early 3 million Teslas can call themselves an early adopter, apart from the fact that they drive a car that was once a “looker”.
The gap of 15 years
The “15-year gap” is a term coined by Everett Rogers in 1962 to describe the mass introduction of innovations.
Coincidentally, the Tesla saga began 15 years ago.
In February 2008, customers received the first production units of the Tesla Lotus, commonly known as the Tesla Roadster. The Tesla Roadster was a game changer as it was the first electric vehicle to use lithium-ion batteries as its powertrain. It could accelerate from 0 to 60 miles per hour in 3.7 seconds and had a range of more than 200 miles per charge.
The rest, as they say, is history.
When this story became public, I had a very visceral idea of the driving experience.
Around the same time, in September 2007, a friend allowed me to drive his Lotus Exige. The car’s strengths were its light weight and low center of gravity. It was obvious that combining the torque of an electric drivetrain with an even lower center of gravity would result in driving on the edge of the still tolerable G-force spectrum.
I imagined driving through the bends like a go-kart with 100% eco-friendly efficiency.
However, it took me 15 years to drive an electric vehicle.
Yesterday I drove a Berlin-made Model Y for the first time. For a drive in the city, the experience couldn’t have been better. “Flying low” and “riding on rails” was possible while remaining a good actor in the eyes of today’s German public consciousness.
Electric vehicles have officially arrived in the mainstream.
In Germany, the early majority now drive electric vehicles. According to the new automotive register, alternative drive systems overtook diesel and petrol cars for the first time in the first quarter of 2023.
Everett Rogers would be amazed at how accurate his concept is.
But why the hell is it taking so long?
However, 15 years is a long time.
This means that during a generation we will only see 1 technological change within a range that is typically defined by the time between the birth and the birth of our own children.
The reason for this is as follows: An idea must go through three phases:
- Scientific experimentation: To overcome technical obstacles, scientists and engineers must conduct rigorous research and experimentation. This process is crucial for determining the reliability of a new technology. For example, the development of mRNA technology for vaccination. Although the idea of using mRNA to create vaccines was first proposed in the 1990s, it took more than a decade of scientific research and clinical trials to develop the mRNA COVID-19 vaccines. Despite the early promise of mRNA technology, it still faces several challenges for other applications, requiring years of experimentation and investment to overcome.
- Productization and market discovery: Even after a new technology has proven itself, it can take longer to bring it to mass production. This process requires the involvement of engineers, entrepreneurs, investors, regulators and consumers to iterate products, invest, write rules and regulations, manufacture and consume the new products. This phase is characterized by extensive financing and setbacks. For example, in January 2010, Tesla received $465 million in funding from the US government to manufacture electric vehicles and advanced battery technologies. Tesla’s “production hell” in 2018 marked one such typical setback.
- Democratization: The scaling of new technologies also depends on broader factors such as infrastructure, standards, regulations, cultural norms and public awareness. These factors can vary in different areas and may require overcoming resistance to change. For example, the number of charging stations in Germany has grown at +30% in the past year, despite a complicated bureaucracy. Public awareness of decarbonization ensures social acceptance of electric vehicles and charging stations.
New ideas need time to work their way through daily life.
Depending on the topic, complexity and degree of innovation, the 15-year estimate is a rough guide for the broad acceptance of a new technology.
This also includes automotive inventions.
The next breakthrough in transportation will be autonomous cars, which will take 10 years to be fully deployed.
However, this technology could first be commercialized and widely used in China.
The Shanghai Motor Show 2023 has reorganized the ranking of technology leaders: Tesla is now leading the race, followed by Chinese manufacturers. The classic western OEM is now in third place.
The race has not yet been decided.
The software-controlled and self-driving car is currently between stages 1 and 2.
We see the first use of self-driving cars and the first production of self-driving cars, e.g. the Teslas, the Mercedes S-Class.
Autonomous driving received massive funding, but billions of dollars were lost, for example due to the discontinuation of ARGO AI. Tesla’s Full Self Driving (FSD) is being legally challenged, particularly in the USA and the European Union.
Therefore, this technology is experiencing large-scale deployment, massive funding and setbacks.
While EV technology is clearly in the democratization phase right now, autonomous cars will probably take another 10 years to reach that stage.
However, there is a caveat to the widespread use of self-driving cars:
The advent of self-driving cars will be as damaging to the industry as smartphones are to Blackberry.
A Blackberry used to be a symbol of the wealthy businessman. Just like many large SUVs. With the introduction of smartphones, this product became a niche product.
The same will happen with today’s most admired cars.
Let’s say you need a new car in 2033 and have narrowed your options down to two viable providers.
A company offers a kit for autonomous driving that can park your car automatically: You pull up outside your office building, get out and park the vehicle via your app. The car beeps and flashes to confirm receipt of the request before slowly driving down the street to find a free parking space.
Think about how much time and frustration this will save you.
How much are you willing to pay for it?
Do you have the number?
Bear in mind that the manufacturer has reduced the price of this option by 70%. Which car will you choose?
Any manufacturer that is not able to deliver competitive features will go out of business very quickly, like the Blackberry manufacturers after the launch of smartphones.
The use of scalable autonomous driving will change our mobility industry in ways we can only imagine.
In the existing industry, we only have 10 to 15 years left.
In the existing industry, we only have 10 to 15 years left.
Car brands that we have known and admired for decades will disappear in the spirit of Schumpert’s “creative destruction”. The stage is set for new manufacturers and mobility providers.
Everyone in the “automotive” industry will have a new career in the next ten years.
Even if you stay with your current employer or company, the nature of your employment will change. The indicators of industrial change could not be clearer. The fury and ruthlessness of the competition – think Tesla and Chinese manufacturers – cannot be underestimated.
Experimentation, learning and acceptance are the buzzwords for companies, teams and individuals in the automotive industry today.
Being an early adopter of new technologies brings only a minimal advantage.
Learn quickly.
As a company. As a team. As a person.
