Six reasons the Electric Vehicle landslide will just accelerate

The VW diesel scandal changed my career.

According to US environmental authorities, Volkswagen cheated on emissions tests in 2015. A lawsuit was settled with a guilty plea, $34.9 billion in compensation and the acceptance of a “monitor” to the board. The former Deputy Attorney General of the United States, Larry D. Thompson, testified in 2020, five years later, that Volkswagen was “a compliant company”.

My boss had to fill a position that had become vacant at head office as soon as the fraud was discovered. I had a new boss and my career changed. After my temporary assignment ended, I was also forced to return to the head office.

The diesel scandal has accelerated the switch to electric cars.

Following the scandal, however, Volkswagen made a remarkable shift towards electric vehicles (EVs). Just four years later, the eagerly awaited ID family made its debut.

At first I was skeptical about this sudden change.

After all, Volkswagen had long been known for its diesel cars, which were renowned for their quality, impressive range and durability. In contrast, EVs had certain disadvantages, such as limited range, longer charging times, higher costs and inadequate charging infrastructure.

Nevertheless, the manufacturer’s commitment, significant investment in new EV platforms and battery technology, increased competition and financial support from the government created a favorable environment for the development of attractive electric vehicles.

The results are impressive.

In 2022, Volkswagen sold an impressive 325,100 fully electric cars. In addition, Audi achieved sales of 118,200 electric cars, Skoda 53,700, Porsche 34,800 and SEAT/Cupra 31,400. In total, the Volkswagen Group sold an impressive 572,100 electric vehicles, representing significant growth of 26.3% compared to the previous year. It is important to note that all of these EVs are technically part of the same family and have the same technology and features.

My initial skepticism was clearly misplaced.

The Volkswagen Group has established itself as a major player in the EV market and has proven its ability to compete and succeed in this rapidly evolving industry.

This change was clearly for the better.

But my skepticism was caused by a reluctance to change. When my career changed after the diesel crisis and the EV strategy proved to be the right one, I had to change course. I studied the facts about individual mobility in depth.

I started with the environment around me.

For some, electric vehicles (EVs) are not yet suitable.

Take our family farm in the mountainous regions of Germany, for example.

Every mission there requires a robust vehicle, but one battery charge is not even enough for a week. Charging an EV there is a difficult endeavor, to say the least. As a family, we need a versatile and functional car that serves two purposes. One day it needs to transport our family to a restaurant, while the next day it should be able to haul heavy construction materials and equipment. It is important that the car is equipped with a trailer hitch to tow trailers loaded with an excavator or timber, regardless of the season. Given the high demands placed on the vehicle, the vehicle must also remain affordable and well below the price of 30,000 euros as a used car.

But most people do not live in rural areas.

In Western countries, around 80% of the population live in urban areas, while China has around 60% and India around 34%. The charging infrastructure in these urban areas is dense, at least compared to the sparse surrounding countryside. This means the increasing accessibility and convenience of charging stations for electric vehicle owners.

The acceptance of electric vehicles is inevitable.

Indeed, the rise of electric vehicle (EV) adoption is inevitable and is driven by several factors such as advances in charging infrastructure, the development of versatile EV models and unique product features that differentiate electric vehicles from internal combustion engine cars.

Electric vehicles offer certain advantages in terms of product features that cannot be achieved by cars with combustion engines.

1. Lower costs in the long term: Firstly, the powertrain of electric vehicles is simpler, which leads to lower costs. EVs do not require transmissions and their motors are simpler compared to the complex internal combustion engines. The cost of electric vehicles is primarily determined by battery costs, which are expected to continue to fall due to industrialization, competition and market saturation. Forecasts point to a significant decrease in battery costs, making EVs around 30-40% cheaper in terms of today’s purchasing power. This cost reduction, combined with the lower maintenance requirements of EVs, will contribute to long-term affordability.
2. Longevity, less wear and tear: Another advantage of electric vehicles is their longevity and reduced wear and tear. Electric vehicles do not require spare parts for motors and gearboxes, which leads to lower maintenance costs. The absence of oil changes and the use of regenerative braking further minimize maintenance costs. Remarkably, even early electric vehicles have demonstrated impressive durability, with some vehicles covering more than 1,000,000 km while retaining 84% of their battery capacity. This longevity extends replacement cycles for cars, reduces production volumes and minimizes environmental impact.
3. Less vibration and noise: Electric vehicles also offer a superior driving experience with less vibration and noise compared to cars with combustion engines. Eliminating conventional engine noise contributes to a quieter and more comfortable ride and improves the overall driving experience. In a conversation I had in 2019 with my friend Tom, a respected engine developer known for his expertise in large, powerful V6 diesel engines, he made a remarkable comment about the future of combustion engines. Tom’s originaton: “Nobody wants a rat car anymore.”
4. Software-controlled vehicles: In terms of software, electric vehicles have more advanced electronic architectures. New EV platforms are purpose-built and able to provide a competitive advantage in user experience. The ability to provide new features such as automation and driver assistance is easier with electric vehicles as they offer continuous development of software features.
5. torque (plus recuperation): Electric vehicles offer significantly more torque and provide impressive acceleration. Compared to combustion engine vehicles, electric vehicles deliver instant torque, resulting in fast and powerful acceleration. I tested this with a Model Y in downtown Berlin. As I rode along, a Yamaha MT09 pulled up next to me at the traffic lights, showing off its impressive specifications: an 847 cc in-line three-cylinder engine with an output of around 115-120 hp and a torque of 87-92 Nm. Curiosity got the better of me: I nodded to the biker, signaling my readiness. With a quick step on the pedal, my electric car sprang into action. The instant torque delivery propelled me forward, leaving the Yamaha MT09 behind me. With their instant torque and impressive acceleration, electric vehicles are proving that they can rival and even surpass the performance of powerful motorcycles.

1. More energy efficient: Electric vehicles are also more energy efficient. The energy fed into the battery is converted into propulsion at a rate of 70% or more, whereas modern diesel engines only convert around 45% of the energy into propulsion. The higher energy efficiency of electric vehicles leads to lower resource consumption and less environmental damage worldwide.

Environmental friendliness should not be the only reason for electric vehicles.

Missing from this list is the main reason why governments subsidize the purchase of electric vehicles as a preferred new car choice: lower carbon emissions.

This is because a fleet of electric vehicles will eventually become more environmentally friendly, but only in the long term.

In the long term, we will switch to climate-neutral energy generation. This is an unprecedented goal: in many countries (including Germany), today’s electric vehicles have a higher CO2 footprint than diesel vehicles, depending on the generation mix. In addition, an electric vehicle emits 100 percent more CO2 during the entire manufacturing process than a vehicle with an internal combustion engine.

The aim is to charge electric vehicles entirely with renewable energy.

Compared to diesel vehicles, a fleet of electric vehicles powered by renewable energy emits 50 to 70 percent less CO2. It is important to be aware that electric vehicles emit CO2 during their lifetime when making a purchase decision. There is no car that does not emit CO2.

Only the complete renunciation of mobility reduces CO2 emissions to zero.

However, electric vehicles in combination with renewable energies will certainly help to significantly reduce CO2 emissions.

Electric vehicles are the superior technology, but here’s what needs to be changed.

However, electric vehicles may not be suitable for all purposes. Nevertheless, efforts are being made to overcome these problems and drive the improvements needed to increase the uptake of electric vehicles.

1. Charging infrastructure remains an important focus. The development of fast charging networks, standardized charging protocols and the provision of charging points at suitable locations where people park their vehicles are of crucial importance. The establishment and expansion of a nationwide charging infrastructure will make progress, but it will also take time.
2. The cost of electric vehicles is an important aspect. As EV technology evolves, the simplification of vehicle components and improvements in battery manufacturing will help to reduce costs. Reducing the purchase cost of EVs, taking into account the total cost of ownership and the lifespan of both EVs and their batteries, will improve their affordability and attractiveness in the market. The resulting price pressure will force some manufacturers to rethink their business models, which we are already seeing.
3. The integration of electric vehicles into local energy systems offers the opportunity for synergies. Homeowners with surplus solar power generation can use electric vehicles to store and utilize excess energy. Bidirectional charging systems allow EV batteries to power household appliances such as air conditioners and heat pumps during off-peak hours. The implementation of such solutions requires technical advances and supporting policies to enable seamless integration.
4. Recognizing and addressing the environmental footprint of electric vehicles involves several aspects. Improving recycling processes for EV components, promoting shared mobility concepts, advancing autonomous driving technologies and transitioning to renewable energy sources for power generation are critical steps. Significantly reducing the environmental impact of electric vehicles will only increase public support for faster adoption of an environmentally friendly technology.

While progress is being made in these areas, future breakthroughs and widespread adoption of electric vehicles will require a conscious effort from industry players, governments and consumers. The practicality and attractiveness of electric vehicles as a sustainable transportation option can be increased by addressing the difficulties related to charging infrastructure, costs, integration into energy systems and environmental impacts.

Will we one day see 100% electric cars in a few decades?

In large cities, yes. For some Western or Chinese cities, this could even be a reality within a few years.

And we will see fewer cars in the conurbations.

Traffic restrictions and rising costs for private car ownership in cities, the use of bicycles, sharing and micromobility services as well as improved public transport services will reduce the need for cars in cities. We can already observe this trend in cities such as Berlin, Shenzen and Paris.

In rural areas, the switch to electric vehicles or CO2-neutral cars will take longer.

It could be that there are only a limited number of dual-use ICEs in rural areas. If we manage to discover and use an abundant source of energy, which could possibly take another two or three decades to become industrialized, we could even switch to CO2-neutral eFuels and H2-powered cars, such as those designed by Toyota.

But the production of cars will still cause CO2 emissions.

Even if the factories are powered by renewable energy, plastics are produced from oil and gas, e.g. for the housing of battery cells or car interiors, as well as for lubricants. Only by reducing the total amount of cars produced and new materials combined with increased recycling could we reduce 80 or 90% of today’s CO2 emissions, which today account for 14-15% of total CO2 emissions worldwide.

With a 100% emission-free vehicle fleet, fewer cars, 100% renewable energy as fuel and all the other measures mentioned above, we will reduce humanity’s global CO2 emissions by 13.5%.

Protecting the environment will not be the most important reason for switching to electric vehicles.

There’s more rationale behind the advent of the EV revolution than just environmentalism: EVs offer longer car life, more torque (aka more fun), more automation, and fewer cars overall.

This landslide is unstoppable.

Accept it.  

Support it.