Your annual plan has already failed. And that’s okay.

Annual planning: Same procedure as every year.

When we plan, the gods laugh at us. Because we know too little for a perfect plan. But every plan sheds light on the future and helps us decide which of the resulting options are good for us. At the end of the year, before the New Year’s Eve party, the ambitious manager takes a sheet of paper and a fountain pen and writes down his or her goals for the year: for business, finances, health and mindset.

I’ve been using the YearCompass for years. Same procedure as every year.

Then the neighbor has the biggest fireworks again. A toast is raised at 12. At Dinner for One, the butler stumbles drunkenly over the tiger skin.

The new year then starts with new goals. These often relate to health, finances, job or family. Same procedure as last year.

According to the International Health, Racquet & Sportsclub Association (IHRSA), January accounts for 12% of all annual gym registrations, while the rest of the year only accounts for an average of 8.3% of registrations. January alone accounts for over half of all new registrations during the year.

And then many give up quickly.

• Unrealistic goals: Training for specific body types (ectomorph, mesomorph, endomorph) follows different principles in terms of muscle building, fat loss and endurance.
• Lack of success because the knowledge for suitable training is missing.
• Overcrowded studios and a lack of capacity cramp the space for newcomers and fit athletes. Cramped conditions lead to ‘body shaming’ and the question: “Do I have to put up with this?”
• The lack of integration into everyday life means that fitness does not become a new habit. It is a Tantalus task to give yourself the impetus to go to the gym every day.

That’s why so many people give up. Most annual goals are unachieved by the end of the month, seem unrealistic, are demotivating and are overwhelmed by everyday life. Every year anew.

That’s why the gods laugh at us when we plan.

We humans just have to plan properly.

No success without planning.

No ambitious project can do without planning.

From restaurant operations to space missions. From the car factory to software production.

The problem: important planning information only emerges once we have started the project. Last October, the renowned Planview blog published an article on Value Stream Management as a successful method for hardware and software integration in the automotive industry. This method focuses on speed of implementation, strategic decisions, risk management and technical debt. Technical debt arises when you take the easy way out.

So there is a suitable planning method for every environment. A complex method is needed for personal annual goals. Even a complicated method does not make annual planning reliable. You need a meaningful context for planning. I came to this realization during our Atlantic crossing from 2019 to 2021.

The voyage of the sailing yacht “ARGO” 2019-2022

We had been planning the trip since 2014 and set off on August 1, 2019. In our 14-metre ARGO sailing boat, with our dog Vu and the whole family. We had a lot of fixed plans: which seasonal winds to use, when to call at which port, where to swap crew members, where we could get food, medicine and spare parts, where we could carry out repairs to the sails and engine. The Atlantic tour was planned for exactly 12 months.

On March 18, 2020, all our plans were ruined. We were in Santiago de Cuba and the world went into its first lockdown. Being forced to abandon our plans was the best thing that could have happened to us: While people in Europe were in lockdown, we were sitting on our boat in paradisiacal places in the Caribbean. One year turned into almost three years. Instead of Bermuda, we sailed to Mexico and Panama. We had to reschedule and reschedule again and again. We probably made 20 annual plans.

And I learned a lot about humility and planning during that time. Without planning, we would never have completed this trip safely. We sailed back to Europe without any accidents or damage.

Four elements that provide important context for objectives.

In addition to clear goals (“We want to get to San Blas in Panama and we want to avoid the pirates of Honduras”), you of course need a map and GPS to measure your progress.

But it needs four more elements:

• Clear principles: The experts, the professionals in a field, have mottos such as “Never sail in the same ocean as a hurricane”. “Always have a plan B when sailing.” Or: “A diesel engine can’t be broken if it has compression and gets enough diesel.” This means that you can get almost any diesel engine to run. Or: “There is no such thing as a perfect boat, something is always broken.” So if you wait until the boat is perfect, you are waiting in vain. Knowing and following such principles makes the most ambitious goals possible. You just need to actively collect these principles from experts.
• Proven protocols: There are sensible processes and procedures, such as preparing food in advance for three days. Because every body needs 3 days to get used to the fast movements. There are also protocols for bad weather, difficult entry into harbors, emergencies at sea and medical emergencies. Ideally, you should practise this beforehand: we have a safety course at the naval school in Neustadt, Holstein. Knowledge of such protocols is what makes an Atlantic crossing possible in the first place.
• Fixed capacities: It is important to set fixed times for working on the goals in the daily routine. It takes time to achieve big goals. You benefit from the compound interest effect of time. This creates a growth dynamic, the “flywheel effect”. In preparation on land, I deal with topics such as routes, equipment, border controls, health and money on a daily basis. During the trip, I worked daily on maintenance and route planning.
• Changing drive: Without inner motivation, no amount of detailed planning makes sense. But this inner drive fluctuates. There are many ports on the sailing routes (e.g. Gran Canaria, Martinique, French Polynesia) where there are lots of sailing boats for sale. Many sailors realize during the trip that their big dream feels very different in reality. But others have these low moods. And talking to each other helps to provide encouragement and rekindle your own drive.

The most important thing is to get started.

The black hole of planning is analysis to the point of paralysis. When I was sailing, I always met people with bad plans. They have accidents: they end up on the beach in a storm, sink their boat on a reef or are run over by a steamer at night.

When it comes to annual planning, they are the ones with the annual subscription to the fitness center that they never use. But it happens to everyone: we got stranded in West Palm Beach in 2020 and couldn’t sail on until the next high tide. A Trump supporter drove past on his motorboat within earshot and asked his wife how anyone could be such an idiot as to get stranded in the middle of the harbor entrance.

Your own mistakes are the best learning experiences. New principles emerge, such as never sailing over too shallow a bottom at low tide. You can also ask others and benefit from their experiences. At this time of year, we run the risk of setting goals that are too static: I want that weight, that salary, that marathon time, that job. And accept today that we will fail.

But we should start and check along the way: What principles and protocols do those who have successfully reached the goal follow? Have I planned enough capacity? What helps me on the days when I have little motivation?

So: Check your annual planning again.

Where are principles, the process, … missing? Have you planned capacities and made provisions for fluctuating motivation?

The marinas in the Canary Islands are full of seaworthy yachts that will never cross the Atlantic. You can buy them very cheaply. And even in 2025, gym owners will be able to tell how the year is going by the end of January.